About CollegeXC

What's here

Qualifier projection

The field for nationals if it were picked today, region by region. Drag teams to reorder a region, then run the projection again to try your own scenario.

Front Runners

A weekly ranking of the top runners and teams, built from the whole season of results.

Locks & Longshots

Once the regionals are run, a forecast of where each runner and team will finish at nationals.

Race simulator

Pick the teams in any race and run it thousands of times on the Front Runners ratings to see each team's chances. Each team starts with its seven best-rated runners and any lineup can be changed.

Race results

The team scores from every meet with Division I or II teams in it.

Team results

How a team finished against every team it has raced this season, race by race.

Head to head

For Division II, who beats whom, directly and through the opponents two teams share.

B teams

The meets where a team raced only its second squad. Those results are left out of the projection.

How the projection works

Each region sends its top teams to nationals automatically. The rest of the field is filled with at-large picks. In Division I those picks follow the Kolas method, which gives a team points for its wins over teams already in the field. In Division II they come from head-to-head comparisons, directly and through the opponents teams share.

Until the regionals are run, each region starts from the latest USTFCCCA rankings, or from the Front Runners board if you choose it. After the regionals, the regions follow the real results. You can drag teams to reorder any region and run the projection again.

How the race simulator works

Each run gives every runner a race-day performance from their Front Runners rating. The less sure the rating, the wider the spread. A rating built on very little racing, such as a single win over a thin field, counts for less. Each team has a good or bad day of its own too. The results list the runners by their average place over all the runs and score the teams from that order the way a race is scored. The chances count how often each team or runner did it in the runs.

Tested on every race from 2022 to 2025 with twelve or more full teams, using the ratings from the day before, the chances held up. Teams given a 29 percent chance to win won 29 percent of the time. Runners given a 43 percent chance of the top ten made it 47 percent of the time. The simulator only knows runners who have raced this season, so a team still holding back its best runners can look weaker than it is.

Where the numbers come from

Race results come from TFRRS and the regional rankings from the USTFCCCA. A result from a team's second squad, its B team, is left out so it doesn't skew the projection. B teams can only be confirmed once the regionals are run, so until then the site flags the likely ones.

A projection, not the selection

CollegeXC is independent and isn't part of the NCAA. Its projections are estimates from the results and rankings published so far, so check the official selections before you rely on one. Corrected or missing results, B teams, incomplete rosters and late updates can all change a projection.

Get in touch

Reports from coaches and fans help find likely B teams, wrong results and edge cases in the rules. If you spot one, send the meet, the team and what looks wrong to collegexc@gmail.com.